Timing the Real Estate Market? You Might As Well Try Herding Cats

by Don & Susie Karstedt

If you’re a buyer or seller lying awake at night wondering,"What if this is the wrong time?" — you’re not alone.That fear is the national anthem of real estate. You're worried about overpaying. About selling too soon. About doing the right thing at the wrong time and regretting it. We have a lot of conversations with our clients at the start and through the process about fears and what if"s. We recently had a client buy a fixer upper in the Seattle area. As we got close to closing he called me and said I don't think we are going to go through with the purchase. I aksed him what was concerning him. He said we paid too much for the house. So I started asking him why he thought so. After talking to him for a while I said let me go back and run the most recent comps and I will let you know what I find. We can see if the market is changing. After reviewing the numbers and seeing what the projections looked like, they decided to move forward. Update: As of May 2025 6 months after they purchased their home, the house is worth over $113,000 more than what he paid for it. Being scared is part of home buying, you are getting ready to commit to a large amount of money, but if you have someone guiding you with facts and figures it becomes a little less of a scary thing.

Here’s what we’ve learned after 24 years of full-time work in the field, through hot, cold, sideways, and downright strange markets:

Trying to time the real estate market is like herding cats — difficult, often chaotic, and unlikely to go exactly as planned.

Our Golden Rule:

The best time to buy or sell is when it makes sense for you.
Not when a headline says it is.
Not when your coworker-turned-housing-expert tells you it is.
And definitely not when your cousin in Boise swears “you should wait just six more months.”

🧭Is it possible to perfectly time the market?

Response: Not unless you have a crystal ball. And even then… we’ve seen better odds at a Vegas roulette table.

Let’s back that up:

According to a 2023 Zillow study, 72% of homeowners who delayed selling later regretted not listing when the market was stronger.
Meanwhile, Redfin found that many buyers who waited for prices to drop in 2022–2023 ended up paying more due to rising interest rates — even if the home price came down slightly.

The takeaway? Waiting for a “perfect” moment often ends in missed opportunities. And the idea of perfect timing? It only exists in hindsight.

Let’s Break It Down: Buyers

Fear: “What if I buy and the market cools down right after?”

Totally fair — especially if you’ve been bingeing doomsday housing headlines. But here’s the reality:

Homeownership is a long-term play.
Even in downturns, values tend to recover and grow. The FHFA reports that U.S. home prices have increased an average of 4.5–5.5% annually over the last 30 years — including during recessions.

And here’s the kicker: the biggest gains often happen in short bursts. If you're always on the sidelines waiting for a "perfect moment," you risk missing the very thing you’re hoping for — the right property at the right time for you.

💡 Pro Tip: If interest rates are your hang-up, remember:
You’re not marrying the rate — you’re dating it.
Buy the right home, and if rates drop later, you can refinance. But you can’t refinance the house that got away. I did a blog post that you can check out to show you that the increase to the purchase price affects your monthly payment more than a drop to your interst rates. I compared the same house in Bonney Lake over a three year period and it even suprised me the outcome and I am in the business. Here is the link to the post if you want to check it out. Rethinkingre.com/blog/The-Price-of-Perfection--Don-t-Wait-for-the-Perfect-Home

Now Sellers:

Fear: “What if I sell and prices go up right after?”

Sure, prices might go higher — but here’s a reality check:

Hypothetical appreciation isn’t cash you can spend. What really matters is the equity you actually unlock—and what that enables you to do next, whether it’s downsizing, moving closer to family, investing elsewhere, or simply simplifying your life.

Keep in mind that if you wait for your current market to rise, home prices in your destination market may be climbing just as quickly—or even faster. That’s why you need a real estate expert to analyze whether moving from X to Y makes sense. Markets grow at different rates, so comparing percentage gains is crucial; otherwise, you could end up farther behind.

💡 Pro Tip: Stop asking “Is this the top of the market?”
Start asking:
👉

Will this move improve your financial situation—and your lifestyle? When we advise clients on timing a move, we look at the full picture:

Are you downsizing to tap equity from a smaller home?
Are you relocating to another state—and if so, is housing there more or less affordable? What is the percentage of growth you are leaving and going to?
Or are you staying in the same county to shorten your commute or be closer to family?

Real-Life Example

In summer 2024, we began working with a client who wanted to sell her larger home to free up time for travel. Although she was eager to move forward, she wasn’t quite emotionally ready and was going back and forth trying to make the decision. It felt like she was trying to force it. We talked to her about her options after selling and she didn't know what she was going to do. Fast-forward to spring 2025: with interest rates stabilizing and inventory levels still low, we listed her home for $50,000 above our original estimate. That decision to wait made perfect sense: by holding off until market conditions peaked, she maximized her equity and gained the breathing room she needed. to be emotionally ready. We also discussed a range of investment options for her proceeds, giving her the freedom to rent while she decided on her next move. With her money invested, she stayed ahead of the market increases rather than watching equity slip away. Every person’s buy and sell is different, which is why a specialized agent can help you time YOUR decision.

What We’ve Learned in 24 Years

After walking thousands of clients through every kind of market, here’s what experience has taught us:

Every season has buyers and sellers. People move for life reasons, not trend alerts.
No one at closing ever says, “Great timing!” But a few years later? They look like geniuses.
Most clients fear regret more than risk. If you are buying or selling because it is the right time for you, more often than not, the move ends up being smoother and smarter than you expected.
It’s easy to fall into “recency bias” — assuming today’s trend is tomorrow’s forecast. But the market, like life, shifts. What doesn’t shift is your need for clarity, strategy, and a calm voice of reason.

The Bottom Line

If you're trying to “time the market,” it might be time to stop.

Start asking yourself:

Does this move make sense for my life right now?
Am I financially prepared to do this smartly?
Do I have a trusted guide (👋 hi there) who can help me navigate with facts instead of fear?

If the answer to those is yes — that’s your green light.

Let’s talk.

Whether you're thinking about buying your first place, selling a longtime home, or just testing the waters — we’ll give you the straight talk. We’ll help you understand what your home is worth, what’s really happening in the market (not what the internet says), and whether the move makes sense for you.

And if it’s not the right time?
We’ll tell you that too.

We’re not pushy.
We are pros.
And we’re here to help you stop stressing about “timing” — and start thinking clearly about your next step.

Curious about more homeownership tips? Follow us at Rethinking Real Estate for insights and advice that keeps you informed! We have more blog posts at https://rethinkingre.com/blog

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